“Certainty not going to happen” predicts polling expert

Speaking to Prosper members at an event forecasting the Scottish election on May 7, the UK’s leading opinion pollster Professor Sir John Curtice said all projections indicate another minority government at Holyrood.

Sir John, professor of politics at of the University of Strathclyde, added that this could present a problem for the economy and business, while the negotiations and dealmaking needed to make a parliament of minorities work could lead to surprise trade-offs in all aspects of policy.

How this plays out following the formation of the next Scottish government is hard to predict. Sir John suggested that stakeholders across industry, the third sector and academia will have to “talk to everyone” for their voice to be heard by decision-makers.

Sir John said that while the economy is a top concern for voters heading to the polls, this particularly focuses on the cost of living, rather than the slightly less tangible concept of economic growth. However, with the Scottish Fiscal Commission and Office for Budget Responsibility both forecasting poor growth rates in Scotland and the UK over the next few years, this is “not a good election to win” Sir John argued.

With weak public finances weak and strained public services, the next Scottish Government will have to grapple with some difficult trade-offs as further divergence in income tax unlikely to raise significant additional revenue. Sir John also pointed to polling evidence that the divergence in income tax between Scotland and the rest of the UK is not always well understood by voters.

Thank you to DWF for generously supporting this lecture and Q&A.

This was part of a series of events for Prosper members ahead of the Scottish Parliament election on May 7:

Scotland at the Polls: Economic and Political Insights with Prof. Mairi Spowage and Douglas Fraser | Inverness | March 24

Energy Hustings: Keeping the Lights On | Edinburgh | April 1